The week leading into Christmas is traditionally one of the strangest stretches of the trucking year, and this year has been no exception. Freight volumes are uneven, capacity is fragmented, and decision-makers across the industry are trying to read signals that are often contradictory. Some lanes are tightening abruptly while others are going dead overnight. Drivers are pushing hard to finish runs before the holiday slowdown, while fleets are already thinking about January realities. Beneath the surface, however, several important trends are taking shape that will influence how 2026 begins.
Freight volumes wobble as holiday shipping peaks unevenly
Holiday freight is still moving, but it is not moving evenly. Retail-focused lanes serving large population centers remain active, especially for food, beverages, and last-minute consumer goods. At the same time, discretionary retail freight is noticeably softer than in previous years. Many shippers pulled inventory forward earlier in the quarter, reducing the traditional late-December rush.
Dry van carriers report short bursts of tightness followed by sudden drops in tender volume. This has made planning difficult, particularly for small fleets and owner-operators who rely on predictable weekly patterns. Refrigerated freight is performing better overall, driven by grocery demand and holiday food shipments, but even reefer carriers say pricing power is inconsistent from one region to another.
Flatbed activity is largely quiet, which is typical for late December. Construction-related freight is slowing as winter weather spreads and job sites pause for the holidays. Some flatbed operators are already parking equipment and preparing for seasonal downtime.
Spot rates stabilize, but gains remain fragile
Spot rates have shown modest stabilization compared to earlier in the fall, but few carriers are celebrating. Any upward movement has been narrow and lane-specific, often disappearing within days. Fuel surcharges remain a critical factor, especially as diesel prices fluctuate regionally and add uncertainty to short-term pricing.
Owner-operators report that negotiating power is still limited unless they are positioned in high-demand areas or servicing time-sensitive freight. Brokers are more willing to negotiate than they were earlier in the year, but margins remain tight across the board. The prevailing mood is cautious optimism mixed with realism: conditions are better than the worst of the downturn, but far from healthy.
Capacity continues to exit quietly
One of the most important developments this week is what is not making headlines: ongoing capacity exit. Small carriers continue to shut down quietly, often without formal announcements. Equipment is being sold off, authority is being revoked, and drivers are leaving the road for more stable income.
This slow bleed is beginning to matter. While demand is not surging, the reduction in available trucks is gradually changing the balance. Larger fleets are in a better position to absorb the volatility, but even they are being selective about freight acceptance. The industry is not seeing a dramatic snapback yet, but the foundation for tighter conditions later in 2026 is forming.
Insurance pressure remains a major pain point
Insurance costs continue to shape carrier behavior more than almost any other expense besides fuel. Premiums remain high, and underwriting standards are strict. New authorities face particularly steep barriers, with many insurers requiring higher upfront payments or refusing coverage altogether.
For existing fleets, safety scores and claims history are under intense scrutiny. Some carriers are choosing to run fewer trucks rather than risk higher premiums tied to expansion. Others are investing heavily in safety technology and driver training to improve their profiles before renewal season.
The insurance environment is quietly influencing capacity decisions, discouraging marginal operators and slowing new entrants. While this contributes to overall stability, it also makes recovery slower and more painful for those still operating.
Enforcement activity ramps up ahead of year-end
As the year winds down, enforcement activity is becoming more noticeable. Roadside inspections are increasing in certain regions, and carriers are reporting a higher level of scrutiny on hours-of-service compliance, vehicle maintenance, and documentation.
This is a reminder that regulatory pressure does not pause for the holidays. Fleets that cut corners to push extra holiday loads risk costly violations that can follow them into the new year. Compliance departments are advising drivers to stay disciplined, even as schedules tighten and personal time pressures increase.
Driver sentiment reflects fatigue and guarded hope
Driver morale this week is mixed. Many drivers are pushing hard to get home for Christmas, leading to longer hours and tighter timelines. Fatigue is a real concern, particularly for those running regional routes with quick turnarounds.
At the same time, some drivers are cautiously hopeful. The steady exit of competitors and slight improvements in certain lanes are signs that the worst may be over. Conversations at truck stops reflect a blend of exhaustion, frustration, and resilience. Drivers who have weathered the downturn are focused on survival rather than growth, aiming to stay lean and flexible until conditions improve more clearly.
Technology investments slow but remain strategic
Technology spending has slowed compared to the boom years, but it has not stopped. Fleets are prioritizing tools that directly impact cost control, safety, and compliance. There is less appetite for experimental platforms and more focus on proven systems that reduce manual work and errors.
Smaller carriers are especially selective, choosing solutions that deliver immediate operational benefits rather than long-term promises. Dispatch efficiency, fuel optimization, and maintenance tracking are among the most common priorities. The emphasis is on practicality rather than innovation for its own sake.
Shippers remain cautious heading into 2026
Shippers are planning conservatively. Inventory strategies remain tight, and many are hesitant to commit to long-term volume increases. This caution is limiting the upside for carriers in the short term, even as capacity tightens.
However, some shippers are beginning to express concern about potential capacity shortages later next year. This is leading to more conversations about relationship stability and service reliability, rather than purely price-driven decisions. Carriers that have maintained strong performance during the downturn may benefit from these shifting priorities.
Weather risks loom as winter deepens
Winter weather is starting to play a larger role in operations. Snow, ice, and severe cold are affecting transit times and increasing operational risk. Fleets are reminding drivers to prioritize safety over speed, even when holiday deadlines create pressure.
Weather disruptions can quickly tighten capacity in affected regions, leading to temporary rate spikes. While these events are unpredictable, they are a reminder of how quickly conditions can change during winter months.
Looking ahead
As the trucking industry moves into the final days of the year, the overall picture is one of fragile balance. Freight demand is steady but unspectacular. Capacity is shrinking, but not fast enough to trigger a full recovery. Costs remain high, and uncertainty continues to dominate decision-making.
The week of December 21 underscores a key reality: the industry is transitioning, not rebounding. Those who survive this phase by controlling costs, maintaining compliance, and preserving relationships will be best positioned when conditions finally turn. For now, trucking enters the holiday stretch focused on endurance, discipline, and cautious preparation for what the new year may bring.